Mary Landrieu kicking off her campaign!

Unlike Kennedy’s mediocre kickoff party, Landrieu has really put the campaign into high gear. She has been through more than one hundred small towns across Louisiana since the year began, and recently began a big campaign swing through Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Monroe, Shreveport, Alexandria, Lake Charles and New Orleans; every major metropolitan area in the state.

She’s beating Kennedy to the airwaves, with her first ad about to go up, and available for viewing on her website, http://www.marylandrieu.com. She also pulled out the endorsements of 68 mayors yesterday.

Adding to the excitement Baton Rouge Daily Advertiser poltical columnist John Maginnis wrote: “has made impressive inroads in the GOP strongholds of Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, where Republican elected officials laud her recovery efforts, and among business contributors who value her seniority in a largely junior delegation.” Confirming what Democrats have already said. He stated that Landrieu has criss-crossed the state announcing grants, and accepting endorsements, while Kennedy has not being much of anything but raising money. In short, the ground game is not even close at this point in time.

Let me give you the story on St. Tammany. St. Tammany parish is part ofthe suburban Northshore of New Orleans, it’s more affluent, white, and heavily Republican. It’s part of overwhelmingly Republican LA-01, which gave Bush 71% of the vote in 2004, and,with an estimated population of over 200,000 it compromises a full third of the districts population. Recently, the President of the Parish Police Jury, (like a county commission of sort, or county wide council that serves as the main governing body) Republican Kevin Davis endorsed Landrieu, citing her seniority and his personal experience working with her to get Katrina aid. At this kick off rally Mayson Foster, the mayor of Hammond, a port city of some 70,000, endorsed her, Candace Watkins, the Mayor of Covington, the small county seat, and the Parish accessor Patricia Core, all Republicans, endorsed Landrieu. The polling trends show more of the same, Landrieu is dominating in the entire New Orleans metro area, which includes much of the more conservative suburbs, she’s dominating in the Baton Rouge area, and she’s dominating as always in the Cajun, Bayou region of Charlie Melancon’s district. (By the way, pronounce that name Meh-laun-sawn, not Meh-lan-con, as I have heard it pronounced before). Kennedy is in the race because of huge leads in north Louisiana, where you’d think Landrieu and Obama were both the anti-Christ, (though Caddo and Rapides, the two most populous Parishes are trending Democratic, and heavy turnout among the black vote should ensure that both of these areas go Democratic, and then you also have some of the heavily black, rural counties, and a few traditionally Democratic areas that still vote that way), and an equally large lead in the southwest Acadiana area of Louisiana which has only grown more and more conservative as Lafayette’s population growth has been among the oil industry which has made a bunch of people very wealthy. A heavy black turnout here,and in Lake Charles and Opelousas would definitely help Landrieu. That’s why it’s good that Don Cravins Jr. is running, his presence and GOTV efforts drive even more voters to the polls.

Landrieu has gotten plenty of good press in the last week for rerouting 85 million dollars in Hurricane aid back to Louisiana, were in can be distributed to those storm refugees who are still in need of aid, and for announcing she had procured forty million dollars worth of funding for a biodiesel cellular plant in Jennings, La.

New Orleans Time-Picayune columnist Stephanie Grace wrote today that ‘Sen. Landrieu is in the strongest position of her career.’

In addition, I cannot wait for Landrieu to release the ad showing what Kennedy said just four years while endorsing John Kerry, namely that that the policies of George Bush  were “cold and mean” and that his tax policy was “nonsense on a stick.” He later criticized the eventual winner, David Vitter, as a lackey of the Bush administration. Of course that was then, that was before Bush’s most corrupt and high level associate, Karl Rove had a talk with him, that was when he was running a populist campaign to the left of the establishment Democrat, Rep. Chris John, this is now, when he’s running as a new found conservative Republican. I’m sure that Kennedy would lose support within right wing base, with its hatred of flip floppers, when they hear about his change in heart. Of course, that didn’t stop Vitter from becoming his best bud, though thankfully Vitter’s popular image is shattered at the moment, and he has no political capital to help Kennedy.

The good news from this, it shows that Kennedy’s political views are completely amendable to whatever is politically expediant. It shows that if he wins, once elected, the Democrats have a large majority and more to offer him than Republicans, that he would ditch them in a heartbeat. Kennedy’s unscrupulous, and will do whatever it takes to get himself more power in the short term.

Among the more ridiculous statements that Kennedy has made is that Landrieu’s endorsement of Obama embodies the liberalism of old Europe. One, liberalism in Europe didn’t turn out so bad, because those countries have surpassed in amny areasdue to the Bush administrations incompetence, and the deteriorating state of our national infrastructures due to lackof money and innovation. Two, even more importantly, the connection even sounds irrelevant, and I don’t even get it. Three, voters are not concerned with Europe, or who she endorsed, they are concerned with the issues and who is going to do more for them.

Louisiana has lost most of its seniority. It invested all its eggs in Republicans, and then they lost control of Congress and it’s most powerful Republican retired, and the second retired. Then Rep. Jefferson lost all power due to corruption, and Vitter is ranked 85th in the Senate power scale. Landrieu is 10th, and holds spots on the Armed Services Committee and Appropriations Committee, as well as twelve years of Seniority. That is another reason why most of the down state business interests, in Baton Rouge, and New Orleans, and even the very conservative suburbs of LA-01, are tactically supporting Landrieu. She has a conservative record for a Democrat, so they can swallow it, and they want the person that can get the most done for them, and three it helps build relationships with the national party, who, as the majoriity party, you want good connections with, it’s just smart politics. This was seen in the Louisiana Chamber of Commerce’s endorsement of Landrieu a few months ago.

Finally, analysts are starting to realize that the damage to the LA-DP due to Katrina and Rita is not cataclysmic as they predicted for years, all the while writing obits for every Democratic statewide office holder. There was still a large loss of voters, and that Landrieu is doing this well is amazing, but, the Democratic trends in LA-04, and LA-06, the Shreveport and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas, respectively, have helped the party and pundits predict Democrats could hold both seats. In addition, Rapides Parish, home of the Alexandria statistical metropolitan area, and which is located in LA-05, Rodney Alexander’s district, is growing more Democratic, in voter registration, and voting registration.

Here is a layout of voter Demographics in major Parishes:

In the LA-06 special election we were helped by the favorable voter registration Demographics in East Baton Rouge, and that is what is making the district trend Democratic. There is a ten point gender gap, 55-45 in the women’s favor, which only helps Democrats because as a whole women tend to have more sense than men, (maybe its because they don’t have the testosterone), and are therefore more Democratic, it’s 39% black, and the largest age group, at 28.3%, is the 18-34 group, likely due to the presence of LSU. And, nationwide, that group is the most liberal emergin voting bloc. The actual number of registered Democrats does really matter in Louisiana because the numbers are grossly inflated with heritage Democrats who never actually vote for Democrats, or only do so on rare occasion.

In LA-04, Caddo Parishes registration Demographics will be an enormous asset, and explain it’s Democratic trend. 57% of its 157 thousand registered voters are women, 42% are black, and 25.5% are in the 18-34 age demographic that has proven to be some ten points favorable to Democrats than other age groups, in most states at least.

Rapides Parish also has a large gender gap, of nearly eleven points. 55.4, to 44.4, in favor of woman. Intersting to see was that only 21,000 black voters, or 27% of total voters, were registered to vote. This is not even half of the black population, and that means there is room to grow here by getting more voters registered. 23.6% of voters are in the 18-34 voter Demographic.

There are some Democratic oasis’ in Kennedy’s stronghold in Acadiana. 73% of Evageline Parishes voters are registered Democrats, which, even in Louisiana, gives any Democratic candidate a solid edge among its 22 thousand voters. There are others, Point Coupee, Iberville, Red River, and the three Mississippi delta parishes in Northeast Louisiana which are all mostly black, East Caroll, Tensas, and Nachitidotches Parish, in central Louisiana, a very Democratic area.

The two Congressional districts that are trending Democratic, and look like they could both be in our hands, LA-04 and LA-06, are actually very much alike. There’s a 9-10 point gender gap, just like their largest parishes, and the 18-34 voter Demographic is easily the largest in both.

Doing well enough in those parishes and holding down his margins in others would keep his margins down in the rest of Louisiana. If she can almost win a Parish like St. Tammany, and dominate in conservative leaning Orleans suburb parishes like Jefferson and St. Bernard, she can win this election. So, the demographics of the state are not against her, especially as the more and more black voters have registered, which only helps because her family has always done really well within the black community, starting with here father who was the last white mayor of New Orleans, in 1978, partly due to the fact that years earlier, he was the only white state Representative to oppose a Southern Manifesto like bill supporting segregation, and was defeated in reelection because of it.

All in all, it’s been a pretty good week for Landrieu, and the poll doesn’t show it because it was commissioned before the week began.

P.S. Please vote in the poll. There’s no counter built in, so I use to see how many people read something. So, if you read this, please vote, so I can satisfy my own curiosity.